Opponents of banning sales of new cars with internal combustion engines in 2030 argue that the costs will be five times greater than the benefits.
A new report by leading consultancy, the Center for Economic and Business Research (CEBR), estimates that the environmental benefits will be worth £76bn, but the costs will be £400bn.
The report was commissioned by the All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG), entitled Fair Fuel for British Motorists and Hauliers, and is funded by FairFuelUK, the Alliance of British Drivers and Motorcyclists.
According to the report, the main costs of the proposed ban are likely to be:
- £188bn worth of new car purchases (in additional spending);
- the £47bn increase in time lost waiting to charge electric cars; and
- electricity generation infrastructure and additional charging points to the tune of £99bn.
It also notes a likely loss of tax revenue of £5.8 billion per year (£2.7 billion down to a 2022 base year) on average under a ban scenario compared to a no-ban scenario, as fuel duty and VAT are decreasing.
Craig McKinley, MP, Chair of the Fair Fuel APPG and Net Zero Scrutiny Group, commented: “This in-depth research by CEBR shows unequivocally that the costs of the proposed ban on petrol and diesel cars will far outweigh the benefits.
“Astonishingly, even using the government’s own carbon pricing methodology, the study shows that the costs are a staggering five times the estimated benefits. Other reports indicate that CO2 The economics of electric vehicles are limited, not to mention the limited supply of the cells needed for batteries, which are largely controlled by China, and the human suffering involved in the mining process.
“No policy can be justified that has such an unbalanced cost-benefit ratio under a number of different assumptions. I very much hope that the government will look carefully at these results and abandon policies that will only make people worse off. The time has come for a more comprehensive approach to decarbonisation of transport that enables innovation in the automotive sector. Continuation of this harsh and authoritarian ban threatens disaster.
Carl McCartney, MP for Transport, said: “ICE vehicles will continue to exist on land, sea and air and perhaps alternatives to fossil fuels could be one way to follow, with synthetic fuels being part of deciding how we transport ourselves, food, goods and materials beyond 2030/2050. As a country, we should support personal choice and vehicle autonomy: the vast majority of my constituents would never consider the economic insanity of an electric car. A new car for them and their family is the equivalent of an average eight-year-old Ford Mondeo. The self-appointed metropolitan elite must snap out of their heads and realize the harm to the people and economy of our country by what they have been led to believe, as well as tacit support, and return to the reality-tested side of the British road.”
Douglas McWilliams, Deputy Chairman of CEBR: “I’m not against electric cars, quite the opposite. But forcing their premature adoption has huge costs that are not covered by the environmental benefits. And the main part of the environmental benefits is in any case lost at the expense of additional production emissions.”